Sunday, December 6, 2009

USD?JPY?

I just wondered whether Japan is gonna sell US Bond or not,
first of all, they could sell US Bond with such a pressure.
US dollar worth will be less than now, and it is natural to prepare for selling bond,
leader and government were changed, they could do stuffs former government did not.
 .
 selling bond → interest rate up → strong USD, and export stock slump → more depression

Investors lost interests in Japan, JPY will be weaker itself, it does not matter for strong USD or not. It is time that it is difficult for Japan to spend bond themselves. they have to sell their own capital now, if they cannot, they cannot earn from bond with low interest rate, if it happens, payment of interest will be more 25% of tax income. They cannot expect more tax, but they would have more payment, in this case, Japanese bond would be close out.

but, in fact, if other countries like china just export all stuffs to US, nothing is gonna be sold in US market, so if other countries never buy bond, all counties exporting to US are gonna be bankrupt. and we know why china buy US bond.

I think Japan cannot sell bond, they have to be patient with pressure, if they sell, they are gonna sell after China might sell first. Although we never know when China bubble gonna burst or not in the future.