today's important index :
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.5%
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.8%
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales 5.72M 5.57M
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Caution & Point etc:
causes at the beginning of next week and the end of the month
Tokyo Market is closed day for holiday
market at the end of the yaer after thanksgiving 10/26
a report on final accounts of US principal companies
other market trends (US stock, US interest rate, gold, ane oil are main )
a bit circumstance of US bonds in succession (Nov. 23th, 24th, 25th)
statement from financial authorities and VIP
profit take term from hedge funds for the end of year
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
Market closing price (NY close) on 11/20
NY Dow 10318.1 ↓ -14.28
NASDAQ 2146.04↓ -10.78
CME N225 9480.00↑ +20.00
Gold 1146.80↑ +4.90
Oil →76.72↓ -0.58
JPY/Yen →88.9 →
EUR/USD→1.486→
GBP/USD→1.650↓
USD/CHF→1.017→
EUR/YEN→132.1→
GBP/YEN→146.7↓
CHF/YEN→87.3→
CAD/YEN→83.0↓
AUD/YEN→81.2→
NZD/YEN→64.4↓
EUR/GBP→0.900↑
EUR/CHF→1.512→
GBP/CHF→1.679↓
AUD/USD→0.914→
AUD/NZD→1.262↑
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
■Trend on 11/20
[EUR/USD&USD/JPY are main]
From Tokyo and London time, dropping stock price leads trend of avoid risk, and trend goes to Long USD and Short JPY .
And when NY is open, avoiding risk trend goes faster, but it changes mild trend because of a rally NY DOW afternoon,
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
【Market Trend on 11/20】→ LONG JPY and LONG USD for avoid risk trend in Tokyo time →アavoid risk trend is stopped because Asia market stocks are weak. Buying USD, USD straight drooped → Nikkei's rally and US CME steady, avoid risk trend is mild → the begginging of London time, Short USD, adjustment for Tokyo's three days holiday (21 22 23) → the middle of London time, Long USD Long JPY → USD/JPY is weak but steady, USD Straight dropped, Cross JPY is dropped → CME is weak, Long USD・Long JPY, EUR/USD dropped by 1.480→Euro/USD 1.4800－1.5100 double notouch option ? →NYDOW minus open → a rally of NY DOW and Gold at NY afternoon, avoid risk trend is mild → USD straight is rally. Cross JPY is rally and rise → US long term bond interest rate is up →NY DOW rise, finally 14 dollar minus → Gold price is still highest price → oil price is drop cause of US stock weak
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
■Recently Foreign exchange market trend＆formula[EUR/USD&USD/JPY are main] 11/23
USD Short
USD/JPY steady trend
EUR/USD and USD straight are up trend because of weak USD and picking & choosing risk
caution for the end of year's market
▼Short USD → buy Gold & Oil
▼important to judge what kind of risk trend
・risk picking and choosing → Short USD ・ Short JPY・ Long other currency
・risk avoiding→Long USD・Long JPY・Short other currency
▼risk trend depends on NY DOW
・NY DOW up →risk picking and chooing
・NYDOW down→rick avoiding
▼US market interest rate
・US long tern bond up →Long USD (※ especially USD/JPY)
・US long term bond down→Short USD (※USD/JPY)
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
■Strady for today's trend■
end of the year's market after 26th, thanksgiving
Scalping and Day Trading are ok, but swing trading is necesarry to change mind because market goes to the end of year .
Stragedy of Swing trade: N/A
During the end of year, trade Day trading or Scalping
Stradedy of Scalping:
EUR/USD → check NY Dow and what kind of Risk trend
USD/JPY→ N/A . so trade EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and other Cross JPY
